Kill My Pipeline

3X is a rule of thumb. Your win rate may disagree.

Enter your number, the pipeline you actually expect to close against it, and your win rate. We'll show you the gap. The numbers below are examples. Type over them with yours.

Go deeper
Put in the number you're carrying and the pipeline you expect to close against it. The verdict updates as you type.

What 3X actually assumes

Three times the number in qualified pipeline is the coverage rule most sales organisations plan to. Almost nobody asks where it came from.

It came from a win rate. If a third of the qualified pipeline due in a period closes, 3X covers the number exactly. So 3X is a 33% win rate written down without saying so. A team that wins 20% of what it qualifies needs 5X. A team that wins half needs 2X. Planning to 3X with a 20% win rate is hopium with a spreadsheet.

The other assumption is the word qualified. Coverage counts pipeline that would survive a hard question about the customer, the money, the person you're talking to, the path to a purchase order and the reason it happens now. Everything else in the CRM is a conversation. That's why the verdict above ends by sending you to Kill My Deal: the multiple is only as good as the deals inside it.

Where the rest realistically comes from

A gap is not an instruction to prospect harder. It's a question about sources, and there are four: new accounts and new buying centers, existing customers and adjacent requirements, partners who own relationships and vehicles you don't, and executive plays that open doors a rep can't. The useful planning conversation is which of the four you're over-relying on, and which one you've never seriously worked.

Mark Flournoy

Hi, I'm Mark.

I led Partner Sales Teams at AWS for six years, sold at F5, Red Hat, STEC and Virident, and before that spent 20 years as a Marine. I've been the seller defending the deal, the manager poking holes in it, the partner trying to help, and the guy explaining the forecast one level up.

These days I work with sales leaders in the middle: responsible for the number, responsible for the people, and getting pressure from both directions. This isn't a big consulting firm. It's just me.

A few things I see a lot

Rarely just one of them. Usually a couple at the same time, quietly making each other worse.

The pipeline looks better than it really is. Plenty of opportunities in the CRM, but once you ask about budget, timing and who actually wants the thing, the number gets smaller fast.

The partner likes you, but nothing is happening. Plenty of meetings, maybe a joint deck. Nobody can point to the accounts where the two companies are actually trying to win something together.

The team is busy, but there isn't much rhythm. The forecast call happens. The one-on-ones happen. Nobody is sure what the team should do differently this week to make next quarter better.

The number from above doesn't match what you see below. Leadership has a growth number. Your team has a pipeline. You're the one who has to explain why they disagree without sounding like you've already given up.

A team can be behind plan for a lot of reasons. One seller needs help getting in front of customers. Another is doing fine and wants you to stay out of the way. Someone else thinks the year is already gone. Sometimes the rep is fine and the territory, the comp plan or the pipeline they inherited isn't. The useful part is figuring out which one you're dealing with before you fix the wrong one. That's what the tools on this site do for one deal and one pipeline. It's also most of what I do.

Three ways to work together

Talk it through. 20 minutes, free. Bring a deal, a pipeline, or a rep you can't figure out. I'll ask a few questions and tell you what I'd look at first. Sometimes the answer is "I wouldn't change much." That's useful too.

Work through one problem. 90 minutes, paid. One issue, properly: a deal, a territory, a partner, a capture plan, a seller. You get a short write-up afterward so there's something to work from.

Run the review with me. Monthly or for a few weeks. I sit in your pipeline reviews, ask the five questions, and stay involved while the team works the answers.

Free, 20 minutes, no pitch. If I don't think I can help, I'll tell you. I also build fedhoo, a federal market research tool.

Questions

Where does 3X pipeline coverage come from?
3X assumes you close about a third of the qualified pipeline that is due in the period. It is a win rate in disguise. If your qualified win rate is 20%, you need 5X. If it is 50%, you need 2X. The benchmark is only right for teams that happen to win a third of what they qualify.
Does anything I enter leave my device?
No. The arithmetic runs in your browser. No account, no CRM connection, no API call. The site counts page views with Google Analytics and never sends your numbers, and never the part of the link where a shared result lives. If you press Share, your inputs go into the link so you can send it to somebody, and that is the only time.
How is the verdict calculated?
Required pipeline is the number still to find ÷ your qualified win rate, or × 3 if you leave win rate blank. The verdict is your pipeline as a share of that: covered at 100% or more, hopium from 75%, on life support from 50%, dead on arrival below. Opportunities are the gap ÷ your average deal size, rounded up.
What counts as qualified pipeline?
Pipeline you expect to close in the period and can defend: the customer has said they want it, the money has a name, you have reached someone who can act, you know how they buy, and something forces action now. That is what Kill My Deal tests one deal at a time.